Market Prospect of Municipal Solid Waste-to-Oil Refining

Market Prospect of Municipal Solid Waste-to-Oil Refining

Municipal solid waste-to-oil refining is an important direction for circular economy and low-carbon transformation, with promising long-term prospects. However, it is constrained by raw material, environmental protection, and compliance factors in the short term, presenting a "long-term blue ocean, short-term tough battle" characteristic. Waste plastic-to-oil refining is currently the core track for layout.

I. Core Development Advantages

Policy-driven: Aligns with solid waste resource utilization and dual-carbon policies, eligible for tax reductions, treatment fee subsidies, and additional income from carbon asset transactions.

Adequate raw materials: China's annual municipal solid waste output exceeds 280 million tons and continues to grow, with a stable proportion of oil-refinable components and low raw material costs.

Rigid demand: Products (fuel oil, carbon black, etc.) can replace fossil fuels, have wide application scenarios, and combine environmental and economic value, ensuring stable market demand.

II. Current Industry Core Bottlenecks

High costs: Municipal solid waste has complex components, leading to high costs for refined sorting; investment and operating costs of exhaust gas and wastewater treatment systems account for over 30%, compressing profits.

Strict compliance: As a hazardous waste disposal category, it requires a Hazardous Waste Operation License, with long approval cycles and complex processes for EIA, safety assessment, etc.

Uneven technology: The industry is dominated by small and medium-sized projects, some with immature processes prone to equipment corrosion and excessive emissions.

III. Prospects of Segmented Fields

Waste plastic-to-oil refining: The most mature and economically viable technology, with a pyrolysis conversion rate exceeding 70% and significant carbon reduction effects, making it the current core track.

Food waste-to-oil refining: Oil extraction rate of 3%-5%, products can be processed into biodiesel, with low raw material sorting difficulty and great potential for regionalized treatment.

Mixed waste-to-oil refining: High technical difficulty and preprocessing costs, temporarily difficult for large-scale promotion, only suitable for large-scale solid waste disposal centers.

IV. Regional Development Characteristics

Europe and America: Mature policies and technologies, active carbon trading, saturated market, with growth relying on technological upgrades.

Asia-Pacific (mainly China and India): Large municipal solid waste output and urgent demand for resource utilization, making it the global core growth area; high-standard large-scale projects dominate in eastern China, while central and western regions offer greater potential due to lower costs and underdeveloped demand.

V. Future Development Trends

Technological upgrading: Popularization of continuous and intelligent equipment, iteration of sorting and environmental treatment technologies to reduce operational costs.

Model innovation: Shifting from single product sales to a diversified profit model of "treatment fees + product sales + carbon assets" to enhance risk resistance.

Industrial chain integration: Layout of integrated "sorting-pyrolysis-purification-deep processing" to increase product added value.

Regionalized layout: Promotion of the "decentralized preprocessing + centralized refining" model for on-site treatment to reduce transportation costs.

VI. Overall Conclusion and Entry Recommendations

Conclusion: The industry combines environmental, economic, and policy value, and will enter a period of rapid growth from 2026 to 2030, gradually becoming one of the mainstream technologies for municipal solid waste treatment.

Recommendations: Prioritize waste plastic-to-oil refining and avoid high-risk chlorine-containing raw materials; proactively obtain compliance qualifications and apply for carbon assets; focus on layout opportunities in central and western China and third- and fourth-tier cities.